Hey, folks! Storm clouds are brewing over Florida construction sites while a hidden gem between Tampa and Orlando sparkles with opportunity! We've got strategies for navigating both choppy waters and calm lakes to keep your portfolio thriving. Grab your coffee and dive in!

In this week's issue:

• 🏗️ How Trump’s tariffs could cost Florida millions in real estate

• 💰 Market spotlight: the affordable haven between Tampa and Orlando

• 📊 Visual: Florida metro rent growth heatmap year-over-year

• 🏃‍♂️ Renters competing for each housing unit in "unaffordable" Port St. Lucie rental market

  
  …and a meme reflecting the latest public sentiment on Florida’s real estate.

Sales to listings ratio: 11.2%

Data: Feb 2025, Redfin

How Trump’s Tariffs Could Cost Florida Millions in Real Estate

Imagine a bustling Florida construction site—cranes swinging, workers hammering, and the promise of new homes on the horizon. Now picture that scene grinding to a halt as costs skyrocket, buyers vanish, and projects stall. That’s the reality creeping into Florida’s real estate market, thanks to President Trump’s latest tariffs on imports.

Rolled out in early 2025, these trade policies are hitting where it hurts: construction budgets, labor availability, and market confidence. Here’s a deep dive into the impacts and strategies to navigate this turbulent landscape.

Construction Costs Are Rising—Fast

Florida’s construction sector, reliant on imported materials like steel and appliances, feels the sting of the tariffs, though exemptions for Canada and Mexico (notably for lumber and gypsum) offer some relief. Experts project these tariffs could tack on $7,500 to $10,000 per new home, with lumber alone driving nearly $5,000 of that spike. Here’s what this means:

• Higher Project Budgets: New developments and renovations could see costs jump by 4% to 6% over the next year, squeezing margins.
  

• Pricing Dilemmas: Do you eat the extra costs to stay competitive, or pass them on to buyers and tenants, risking slower sales or occupancy?

For those with projects in the pipeline, this is a signal to reassess budgets and timelines now.

Labor Shortages Threaten Project Timelines

The tariffs are compounded by Trump’s immigration policies, including mass deportations, which are reducing Florida’s construction workforce. Immigrants make up 37% of the state’s builders, and their departure could create significant hurdles.

• Delays: A smaller labor pool may extend project timelines, delaying returns on investment.
  

• Wage Increases: Scarcity of workers could push up labor costs, adding another layer of expense.

For projects relying on quick turnarounds or tight schedules, these shortages may necessitate a strategic rethink, particularly for ground-up builds or major renovations.

Market Uncertainty Alters Demand Dynamics

The tariffs’ broader economic effects are rippling through Florida, influencing real estate demand:

• Buyer Pullback: With median home prices at $412,200, each $1,000 cost increase could exclude over 100,000 U.S. households, softening demand.
  

• Retaliatory Tariffs: China’s 67% tariff on U.S. goods threatens Florida’s agricultural exports, potentially lowering local incomes and dampening housing demand.
  

• Investor Caution: Economic uncertainty, including recession fears, is fostering hesitation, which may slow absorption rates and complicate high-end flips or rentals.

These dynamics could lead to longer holding periods and a more competitive market environment.

Strategies to Mitigate Risks

Navigating this landscape offers investors opportunities to adapt and thrive:

• Diversify Holdings: Focus on existing properties—such as rentals or resales in stable submarkets—where new construction costs are less of a factor.
  

• Secure Costs Early: For planned builds, locking in materials and labor contracts now can help avoid future price increases.
  

• Stay Flexible: Tariffs may evolve with global trade negotiations, so maintaining adaptability—whether pausing or accelerating projects—is key.
  

• Leverage Financing Options: Mortgage rates at 6.6% provide some relief amid economic uncertainty, though this is tied to recession risks.

The Bottom Line

Trump’s tariffs are reshaping Florida’s real estate market with higher costs, labor constraints, and economic uncertainty. Margins may face pressure, but those who adapt—by diversifying into existing properties, securing costs early, and remaining flexible—can position themselves for resilience and long-term gains. Close monitoring of market trends and policy shifts will be essential to capitalize on this evolving landscape.

Lakeland: The Affordable Haven Between Tampa and Orlando

Picture this: a city where your dollar stretches further, where shimmering lakes dot the landscape, and where you’re just a quick drive from Tampa’s buzz or Orlando’s magic. Welcome to Lakeland, the affordable haven nestled between two of Florida’s giants, a prime position driving its rapid growth.

In fact, the Lakeland-Winter Haven metro was the second-fastest growing in the nation from 2022 to 2023 – up nearly 4% in one year to ~818,000 residents. This isn’t just a sleepy stopover—it’s a real estate market waking up to its moment. As Florida’s housing scene twists and turns, Lakeland is carving out a niche as a smart, accessible bet for investors. Here’s the scoop on why you should pay attention.

A Market on the Rise

Lakeland’s real estate story is all about value and momentum. As of March 2025, the median home price clocks in at $324,983—a steal when Florida’s statewide average hovers at $412,200. But affordability isn’t the only draw. The population is swelling, estimated at 127,848 in 2025, growing at a steady 2.23% annually. That’s about 2,676 new residents each year, fueling demand for roughly 1,070 new households (assuming 2.5 people per household).

Here’s where it gets interesting: supply can’t keep up. Lakeland issues around 800 new single-family home permits annually, leaving a gap of 270 units. That shortfall is like rocket fuel for property values, hinting at appreciation ahead. Toss in its prime spot along the I-4 corridor—bridging Tampa and Orlando—and you’ve got a market that’s quietly stealing the show.

Demand Drivers

Several factors are driving demand for real estate in Lakeland:

• Population Growth: Lakeland's population has increased by 12.26% since the 2020 census, reaching 127,848 in 2025, with an annual growth rate of 2.23%. This translates to approximately 2,676 new residents per year, assuming a base population of 120,000. With an average household size of 2.5, this requires about 1,070 new households annually (Lakeland Demographics). This growth is fueled by migration, with Polk County being the top county in the US for inbound moves in 2023 (Polk County Growth).
  

  

• Job Opportunities: Lakeland's economy is diverse, with top industries including manufacturing, healthcare, tourism, and logistics. Major employers like Publix (headquartered in Lakeland), Amazon, and Lockheed Martin create significant job opportunities, with over 14,000 Lakelanders working in manufacturing alone. The city's location along I-4, linking it to Tampa and Orlando, enhances its role as a logistics hub, adding over 1 million square feet of manufacturing and warehouse space annually.
  

• Quality of Life: Lakeland is known for its 38 scenic lakes, historic downtowns, and attractions like Florida Southern College, which draws 60,000 visitors annually for its Frank Lloyd Wright architecture. Events like the SUN 'n FUN Fly-In and a vibrant arts scene contribute to its appeal, attracting residents seeking a balance of urban amenities and small-town charm.
  

• Affordability: Compared to neighboring cities like Tampa and Orlando, Lakeland offers relatively affordable housing, with median home prices significantly lower than the state average of $410,800 ([Florida Housing Market Trends 2025]([invalid url, do not cite])). This affordability, combined with lower property taxes, makes it attractive for first-time buyers and investors.

Why It’s Poised to Boom

Lakeland offers affordability + location. It’s one of Florida’s few metros where typical home prices are still around $320K, yet it directly benefits from two thriving job markets (Tampa and Orlando). As those big cities expand outward (and their home prices climb), more families and businesses are choosing Lakeland for its lower costs and central positioning. Population growth of nearly 14% in just five years. With major road and rail infrastructure on the horizon and plenty of developable land, Lakeland is primed for long-term real estate appreciation. Investors can still “buy low” here relative to other Florida markets while demand is on a clear upswing.

Lakeland Real Estate Market Trends

Here’s a snapshot of Lakeland’s housing market numbers:

Median Sold Price by Bedrooms

Source: Rocket

Opportunities in the Supply Shortfall

While some markets drown in oversupply, Lakeland’s playing a different game—one where demand outstrips homes. The estimated 270-unit gap is your ticket to appreciation. Buy now, and you could watch values soar as more people vie for fewer properties.

The rental scene’s no slouch either. With average one-bedroom rents at $1,324, cash flow is within reach. And if you’re thinking beyond homes, commercial real estate is buzzing. Big employers are expanding, and projects like a 135,000 square foot office in Downtown Lakeland hint at demand for industrial and office spaces. Keep an eye on the Brightline rail extension talks too—if it links Lakeland to Tampa, this market could take off.

Risks on the Horizon

No rose-colored glasses here—Lakeland has risks to watch:

• Economic Hiccups: A slowdown in growth or a broader downturn could cool demand, though those major employers offer some cushion.
  

• Oversupply Sneak Attack: If builders overreact and flood the market, price growth could stall. For now, the shortfall rules.
  

• Rate Rollercoaster: Mortgage rates are stabilizing, but a jump could squeeze affordability. Stay nimble.

Four Ways to Win in Lakeland’s Market

Ready to jump in? Here’s how to turn Lakeland’s trends into your wins:

1. Residential Buy-and-Hold: Grab single-family homes in up-and-coming spots like Lakeland Highlands or near big employers. Hold for 3-5 years to cash in on appreciation, and rent them out for gravy on top.
   

2. Rental Cash Flow: Scoop up multi-family units or homes in rental-hot zones. With a mix of professionals, families, and retirees, tenants abound—maybe even short-term rentals if that rail line hits.
   

3. Commercial Plays: Bet on industrial or office spaces in growing hubs like Downtown. As companies expand, so does your upside.
   

4. Flip It Fast: Hunt undervalued properties, spruce them up, and flip them in 6-12 months. The market’s upward tick gives you room to profit.

By aligning investments with Lakeland’s growth drivers—proximity to employers, quality schools, and infrastructure potential—investors can maximize returns while mitigating risks through careful due diligence. Now is an opportune time to enter this market, before prices potentially rise further due to increasing demand and limited supply.

• How Donald Trump's Tariffs Will Impact Florida: 'Economic Hurricane'

• 7 trends and updates shaping the South Florida real estate market in 2025

• Renters competing for each housing unit in "unaffordable" Port St. Lucie rental market

• Inventories of Existing Homes in Florida Spike in March to Highest since at Least 2016, Massive Jumps in Tampa, Miami, Orlando, as Buyers Are on Strike

• Lionel Messi to buy 4 homes in a new Miami tower

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DISCLAIMER: This is not investment advice. The information provided is for general information purposes only. No information, materials, services and other content provided on this page constitute a solicitation, recommendation, endorsement, or any financial, investment, or other advice. Seek independent professional consultation in the form of legal, financial, and fiscal advice before making any investment decision.